It only takes a game or two to flip the NFL playoff picture upside down each week and that's exactly what we saw in Week 13. 

Two NFC teams threw a wrench in the AFC playoff picture with the Packers (over Chiefs) and Cardinals (over Steelers) both pulling off huge upsets on Sunday. The Bengals also pulled off a huge upset with a win over the Jaguars and due to those three games, the AFC playoff race is looking a lot different than it did last week.

So who's going to make the playoffs out of the AFC? 

That's what we're going to answer right now in this week's playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the 2023 NFL season, and using those numbers, we're going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field. 

With that in mind, let's get to this week's playoff projections (For more from Stephen Oh and his SportsLine "Inside the Lines" team, you can tune into his YouTube channel daily at 1 p.m. ET by clicking here). 

AFC playoff projection

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Steelers (56.5%), Bills (17%), Broncos (13.5%), Chargers (13.5%), Bengals (10.7%), Raiders (2.6%), Jets (0.3%), Titans (0.1%), Patriots (0.0%). 

NFC playoff projection

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Vikings (41%), Seahawks (35.3%), Saints (32.5%), Buccaneers (30.4%), Bears (0.7%), Giants (0.4%), Commanders (0.0%), Cardinals (0.0%), Panthers (ELIMINATED). 

Note: Although the Saints and Buccaneers are both 5-7, their playoff chances are unusually high because both teams still have a chance to win the NFC South, which is factored into their percentage. On the other hand, teams like the Vikings and Seahawks are basically only playing for a wild-card spot at this point.  

Wild-card round projection

AFC

(7) Colts at (2) Dolphins
(6) Browns at (3) Chiefs
(5) Texans at (4) Jaguars

Bye: Ravens

NFC 

(7) Rams at (2) 49ers
(6) Packers at (3) Lions
(5) Cowboys at (4) Falcons

Bye: Eagles